Posted at 04 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Markets await U.S. jobless claims, non-farm payrolls data
•Traders see 64% chance of 25bps rate cut by Fed in March
•French HICP (YoY) 4.1%, 4.1% forecast,3.9% previous
•French HICP 0.1%, 0.3% forecast,-0.2% previous
•French Dec CPI (YoY) 3.7%,3.8% forecast,3.5% previous
•French Dec French CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•Italian Dec Services PMI 49.8,49.8 forecast,49.5 previous
•French Dec S&P Global Composite PMI 44.8, 43.7 forecast,44.6 previous
•French Dec French Services PMI 45.7,44.3 forecast,45.4 previous
•German Dec Composite PMI 47.4,46.7 forecast,47.8 previous
•German Dec Services PMI 49.3,48.4 forecast,49.6 previous
•EU Dec Services PMI 48.8,48.1 forecast,48.7 previous
•EU Dec S&P Global Composite PMI 47.6,47.0 forecast, 47.6 previous
•UK Dec Services PMI 53.4,52.7 forecast,50.9 previous
•UK Dec Mortgage Approvals 50.07K,48.50K forecast, 47.38K previous
•UK Dec Composite PMI 52.1,51.7 forecast,50.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 Canada Dec Reserve Assets Total 115.4B previous
•13:15 Canada Dec ADP Nonfarm Employment Change115K forecast, 103K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 216K forecast ,218K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,883K forecast ,1,875K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 212.00K previous
•14:45 US Dec Services PMI 51.3 forecast , 50.8 previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI 51.0 forecast , 50.7 previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -40B forecast ,-87B previous
•16:00 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) 0.9% previous
•16:00 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.508M previous
•16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -3.200M forecast ,-7.114M previous
•No Events Ahead
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Thursday as investors assessed plethora of economic data for any indications that the European Central Bank would cut interest rates earlier than anticipated this year. France's INSEE official statistics agency reported an EU-harmonised inflation rate of 4.1% in December, as expected by economists polled.The German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous, reported an inflation rate of 3.5% in December, rising from 3% in November. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.0950, having fallen to a more than two-week low on Wednesday, after France and other European countries reported inflation figures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0989(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0911(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0839 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against dollar on Thursday after data showed services companies in Britain saw stronger growth in December. Britain's services sector increased at a faster rate in December than first anticipated, and confidence reached a seven-month high. According to survey this is good news for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is anticipated to call an election later this year. The S&P Global/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which was released on Thursday, increased from 50.9 in November and a preliminary reading of 52.7 to 53.4 in December, its highest level since June. Sterling was last up 0.23% against the dollar at $1.2690.It rose as much as 0.5% to $1.2728 after the data release, having fallen 0.87% on Tuesday to a three-week low, in its biggest one-day drop since mid-October. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2734(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2778(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2580 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2493(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Thursday as investors digested the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest minutes even as it offered little clarity on the timeline for interest rate cuts. Minutes of the Fed's December policy meeting released on Wednesday reflected a growing sense that inflation is under control and growing concern about the risks that "overly restrictive" monetary policy may pose to the economy. Market pricing now shows a roughly 72% chance that the Fed could begin cutting rates in March, compared with an 87% chance a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.The closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is due on Friday, which will likely give further clarity on how much room the Fed has to lower rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8591(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8661(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8483(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8379(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday as investors digested minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting.Minutes of the December policy meeting released on Wednesday showed Fed officials convinced inflation was coming under control and concerned about the risks of the central bank's "overly restrictive" monetary policy on the economy. Traders are pricing in about a 64% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed at its March 20 policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors now await the U.S. weekly jobless claims data due at 1330 GMT and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday for further clues on the Fed rate hike path. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.63(50%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.79(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 142.98(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.92(Jan 3rd low).
Equities Recap
European shares bounced back on Thursday, boosted by healthcare and energy stocks, with adamant investors assessing a slew of economic data for any signs that the European Central Bank could loosen monetary policy sooner than expected this year.
At (GMT 13:23 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.08 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.23 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rebounded from a two-week low on Thursday, as a pullback in the dollar lifted demand among investors who are looking ahead to a U.S. jobs report that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.2% to $2,044.69 per ounce as of 1210 GMT, after hitting its lowest since Dec. 21 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,052.10 per ounce.
Oil rose by about 1% on Thursday, extending gains on concerns over Middle Eastern supply after disruptions at an oilfield in Libya and heightened tensions relating to the Israel-Hamas war.
Brent crude rose 61 cents, or 0.8%, to $78.86 a barrel by 1300 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rallied 74 cents, or 1%, to $73.44.