Posted at 22 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 212.00K, 213.25K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,865K,1,888K forecast, 1,876K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 205K,214K forecast, 202K previous
•Canada Oct Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 4.03%,4.00% previous
•Canada Oct Retail Sales (MoM) 0.7%, 0.6% previous
•US Dec Philly Fed CAPEX Index -7.50, -1.30 previous
•US Dec Philly Fed Employment -1.7, 0.8 previous
•US Dec Philly Fed Prices Paid 25.10,14.80 previous
•US Dec Philly Fed New Orders -25.6, 1.3 previous
•US Dec Philly Fed Business Conditions 12.1,-2.1 previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 3.3%,3.5% forecast,1.7% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q3) 2.6%,2.8% forecast, 2.5% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q3) 2.00%,2.30% forecast, 3.70% previous
•US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3) 3.7%,4.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 4.9%,5.2% forecast, 2.1% previous
•US Dec Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -10.5,-3.0 forecast,-5.9 previous
•US Dec KC Fed Composite Index -4,-2 previous
•US Dec KC Fed Manufacturing Index -1, -3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 2:00 New Zealand Nov M3 Money Supply 405.9B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday as dollar fell as economic data fanned expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy. Data released earlier Thursday revealed that GDP rose at a 4.9% annualized pace in the third quarter, down from the previously reported 5.2%. The consumer expenditure component of third-quarter GDP was revised down to 3.1% from 3.6% previously.Separate data released on Thursday indicated that the number of Americans submitting new jobless claims increased modestly last week, indicating underlying economic resilience as the year comes to a close. Investor now awaits Friday's reading on U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1020(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1083(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0936 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0934(5DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the dollar on Thursday as traders digested the latest snapshot of the UK budget deficit, while Wednesday's cooler-than-expected November inflation print continued to sink in. Figures on Thursday showed the budget picture for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak deteriorating as November's deficit came out wider than expected, though a smaller debt interest bill thanks to slowing inflation could yet restore some of his limited room for pre-election tax cuts.The data follows a key inflation reading on Wednesday that came in well below expectations, prompting market players to bring forward bets on when the Bank of England (BoE) will start cutting interest rates. The CPI print saw the pound plunge 0.715% versus the dollar on Wednesday, clocking its biggest daily fall in almost two months. Immediately before the data .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2739 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2782(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2616(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2590(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar extended recent gains against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as slightly positive Canadian retail sales data and weaker dollar boosted loonie. Month-on-month retail sales in Canada increased by 0.7% in October but are expected to remain unchanged in November.Sales in October totaled C$66.95 billion ($50.19 billion), driven by gains at auto and component dealers. Sales increased in seven of the nine subsectors, accounting for 84.1% of total retail commerce.Retail sales rose 1.4% in volume terms. In a flash estimate, the agency stated that November sales were likely unchanged. The price of oil, one of Canada's key exports, fell after Angola said it would leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, casting doubt on the producer group's attempts to curb world supply. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3352 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3394 (9DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3273(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3200 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The greenback eased against yen on Thursday after U.S. economic data heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rate next year in March . Data showed , U.S. GDP rose at a 4.9% annualized rate in the third quarter, down from the previously reported 5.2% rate, while weekly unemployment claims climbed marginally.In light of the Fed's dovish attitude, markets have priced in numerous rate decreases in 2024. Some Fed officials, however, have spoken out against the impending rate decreases.The market's attention has now switched to the release of the United States' core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data on Friday. The dollar fell 0.93% against the Japanese yen. The yen is down roughly 8% against the dollar for the year. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.56(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 142.98(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.51 (23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
After two days of gains, European stocks fell on Thursday as investors assessed the recent rise fueled by predictions that major global central banks will cut interest rates next year.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.27 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.27 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.16 percent.
U.S. stocks finished higher on Thursday, recovering most of the previous day's losses, as economic data stoked confidence that the Federal Reserve will soften monetary policy and rekindled investor risk appetite.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.87 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 1.03 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 1.26 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday as the dollar fell after U.S. economic data ignited expectation that the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates in March of next year
Spot gold was up 0.7% at $2,043.79 per ounce by 2:55 p.m. ET (1955 GMT), eyeing its best session in six. U.S. gold futures settled 0.2% higher at $2,051.30.
Oil prices fell on Thursday after Angola announced its withdrawal from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), casting doubt on the producer group's efforts to stabilize prices by limiting global supplies.
Brent crude futures settled down 31 cents at $79.39 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 33 cents to $73.89 a barrel.