Posted at 20 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Nov PPI Input (YoY) -2.6%, -2.6% previous
•UK Nov RPI (MoM) -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK Nov RPI (YoY) 5.3%, 5.8% forecast,6.1% previous
•UK Nov CPI (MoM) -0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.0% previous
•UK Nov CPI (YoY) 3.9% ,4.3% forecast, 4.6% previous
•UK Nov Core RPI (MoM) -0.2% ,-0.3% previous
•UK Nov CPI, n.s.a 131.70, 132.00 previous
•UK Nov Core RPI (YoY) 4.1%, 4.8% previous
•UK Nov Core CPI (YoY) 5.1%, 5.5% forecast,5.7% previous
•UK Nov Core CPI (MoM) -0.3% ,0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
• German Nov PPI (MoM) -0.5%, -0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
• German Jan GfK German Consumer Climate -25.1,-27.0 forecast,-27.8 previous
•French Nov Car Registration (MoM) 0.2%, -2.5% previous
•UK Nov Core CPI (YoY) 5.1%,5.5% forecast,5.7% previous
•UK Nov Core CPI (MoM) -0.3%, 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•15:00 EU Dec Consumer Confidence -16.5 forecast,-16.9 previous
•15:00 US Nov Existing Home Sales (MoM) -4.1% previous
•15:00 US Nov Existing Home Sales 3.78M forecast,3.79M previous
•15:00 US CB Dec Consumer Confidence 103.8 forecast,102.0 previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -4.259M previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Inventories 0.408M previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.228M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•18:30 Canada BOC Summary of Deliberations
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Wednesday after data showed German producer prices fall more than expected in November, a day after another set confirmed that euro zone inflation slowed sharply to 2.4% last month on a year-on-year basis. German producer prices decreased more than predicted in November, falling 7.9% year on year, according to the federal statistics office on Wednesday. Analysts surveyed predicted a 7.5% drop. European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said in an interview published on Wednesday that euro zone interest rates must remain high and traders betting on upcoming cuts in borrowing costs should be careful. The euro eased 0.4% to $1.09405 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0983(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0893 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0845(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling plummeted against the dollar on Wednesday after data showed that British inflation decreased in November and fell far short of forecasts, prompting investors to place bets on when the Bank of England may begin slashing interest rates. Annual consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom decreased to 3.9% in November from 4.6% in October, the worst rate since September 2021.The data fell short of all projections in a survey of analysts, which predicted a 4.4% rate. Core inflation fell by a surprisingly big amount, from 5.7% to 5.1%. The pound was last down 0.56% at $1.2659, having been down around 0.15%. Immediately before the data .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2739 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2786(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2616(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2590(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation numbers due later this week. On Friday, the Fed will release its preferred measure of underlying inflation, the November core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index.Further progress against inflation will be the deciding element in any Fed move to lower interest rates next year, according to Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee.Given the health of the economy, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday that there is no immediate "urgency" for the central bank to lower U.S. interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are putting in around a 75% possibility of a rate decrease in March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8705(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8744(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8639 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8600(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The greenback dipped against yen on Wednesday a day after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy and opted to wait for more evidence to justify a shift. The Bank of Japan kept its ultra-easy policy settings unchanged, opting to wait for additional information on whether wages and prices will increase sufficiently to support a shift away from huge monetary stimulus. The central bank also made no changes to its dovish policy guidance, dashed hopes among some traders that it would adjust the language to indicate the end of zero interest rates in the near term. The dollar fell 0.3% against the yen to 143.410. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.09(50%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.47(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.41(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark stock index lost early gains on Wednesday, driven down by a drop in Belgian pharmaceutical company argenx, even as Telefonica shares rose after the Spanish government announced intentions to purchase a stake.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.62 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.08 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold hovered above the crucial $2,000 barrier on Wednesday, boosted by the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate reduction next year, while investors anticipated U.S. inflation data coming later this week.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,042.10 per ounce, as of 0729 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% at $2,055.90.
Global oil benchmark Brent surpassed $80 a barrel on Wednesday amid concerns about global trade disruption and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels.
Brent crude futures rose 89 cents, or 1.1%, at $80.12 a barrel by 1101 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 93 cents, or 1.3%, to $74.87 a barrel.