Posted at 19 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•EU Nov Core CPI (YoY) 3.6%, 3.6% forecast,4.2% previous
•EU CPI, n.s.a 123.85, 123.86 forecast,124.54 previous
•EU Nov CPI (MoM)-0.6%,-0.5% forecast,0.1% previous
•EU Nov CPI (YoY) 2.4% ,2.4% forecast,2.9% previous
•EU Nov CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) 2.3%, 2.8% previous
•EU Nov HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 4.2%,4.2% forecast,5.0% previous
•EU Nov Core CPI (MoM) -0.6%, -0.6% forecast,0.2% previous
•EU Nov HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) -0.5%, -0.4% forecast,0.2% previous
•EU Nov CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) -0.6%, 0.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Nov Building Permits 1.470M forecast,1.498M previous
•13:30 US Nov Building Permits (MoM) 1.8% previous
•13:30 US Nov IPPI (MoM) -0.8% forecast,-1.0% previous
•13:30 US Nov Housing Starts 1.360M forecast,1.372M previous
•13:30 US Nov Trimmed CPI (YoY) 3.3% forecast,3.5% previous
•13:30 US Nov Median CPI (YoY) 3.3% forecast,3.6% previous
•13:30 US Nov CPI (YoY) 2.9% forecast,3.1% previous
•13:30 US Nov Housing Starts (MoM) 1.9% previous
•13:30 Canada Nov Core CPI (YoY) 2.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Nov IPPI (YoY) -2.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Nov RMPI (MoM) -3.5% forecast,-2.5% previous
•13:30 Canada Nov CPI (MoM) -0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•13:30 Canada Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 3.4% previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.6% forecast,2.6% previous
•21:00 US Oct TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 45.8B forecast,-1.7B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro gained on Tuesday after Federal Reserve policymakers tempered U.S. rate cut expectations that had led to an earlier risk-on rally. The Federal Reserve's dovish tone last week weakened the dollar, but markets remained wary amid criticism from New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Monday.Markets are now anticipating the release of the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index data on Friday. The statistics will likely shed further light on whether inflation has dropped sufficiently for the Fed to begin relaxing monetary policy next year. The euro rose 0.16% to $1.0963 against dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0963(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0893 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0845(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Tuesday as investors increasingly took up sterling as a hot prospect for next year. The pound has climbed around 2.5% over the last three months as optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon be cutting rates has intensified. Investors are currently pricing in around 120 basis points of cuts from the BoE next year but almost 150 bps from the Fed. British inflation data for November is due on Wednesday before traders head off for the Christmas break. Headline inflation is expected to have slowed to 4.4% year-on-year, from 4.6% in October. Inflation is running higher than in the U.S. or euro zone, where it stood at 3.1% and 2.4% respectively in November. That is one reason the Bank of England pushed back against expectations for rate cuts last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2741 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2786(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2616(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2590(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar edged lower against Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors eagerly anticipated additional U.S. economic data this week that may provide insight into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Investors are awaiting a slew of U.S. economic data this week, including the November core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index report, the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation, on Friday. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the historic tightening of monetary policy is likely over as inflation falls faster than expected and with a discussion of cuts in borrowing costs coming into view.Markets are still pricing in about a 69% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, according to CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8705(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8744(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8639 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8600(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The greenback strengthened against yen on Tuesday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy. The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-loose policy settings on Tuesday in a widely expected move, as the bank opted to await more evidence on whether wages and prices would rise enough to justify a shift away from massive monetary stimulus.The central bank also made no change to its dovish policy guidance, dashing hopes among some traders it would tweak the language to signal a near-term end to negative interest rates.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said prices and wages appeared to be moving in the right direction with labour unions and big firms signalling the chance of sustained wage gains next year. But he warned conditions remained uncertain. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.33(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.08(14DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 142.50(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.21(Dec15th low).
Equities Recap
European shares gained on Tuesday as risk appetite got a boost after Japan's central bank stuck to its ultra-loose monetary policy.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.01 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.37 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were stuck in a narrow trading range on Tuesday as investors awaited more U.S. economic data this week that could shed light on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
Spot gold was little changed at $2,024.57 per ounce, as of 0232 GMT. U.S. gold futures were mostly unchanged at $2,039.80.
Oil steadied on Tuesday as investors considered the potential impact on oil supply from attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militants against ships in the Red Sea, which have disrupted maritime trade and forced companies to reroute vessels.
Brent crude was up 9 cents at $78.04 a barrel by 1100 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for January , which expires on Tuesday, was down 1 cent at $72.46 while the more active February contract lost only 2 cents.