Posted at 08 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Finnish Oct Industry Output (YoY) 1.2%,-1.9% previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3)0.1%,-0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•German Nov CPI (YoY) 3.2%,3.2%forecast,3.8% previous
•German Nov German HICP (YoY) 2.3%,2.3% forecast,3.0% previous
•German Nov CPI (MoM) -0.4%, -0.4% forecast,0.0% previous
•German Nov HICP (MoM) -0.7%,-0.7% forecast,-0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Nov U6 Unemployment Rate 7.2% previous
•13:30 Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q3) 81.0% forecast,81.4% previous
•13:30 US Nov Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.0% forecast, 4.1% previous
•13:30 US Nov Participation Rate 62.7% previous
•13:30 US Nov Average Weekly Hours 34.3 forecast,34.3 previous
•13:30 US Nov Unemployment Rate 3.9% forecast,3.9% previous
•13:30 US Nov Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•13:30 US Nov Nonfarm Payrolls 180K forecast,150K previous
•13:30 US Nov Private Nonfarm Payrolls 153K forecast,99K previous
•13:30 US Nov Government Payrolls 51.0K previous
•13:30 US Nov Manufacturing Payrolls 30K forecast,-35K previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 4.5% previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.2% previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan Consumer Sentiment 62.0 forecast,61.3 previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan Consumer Expectations 57.0 forecast,56.8 previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan Current Conditions 68.5 forecast,68.3 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 505 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 625 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar as investors evaluated Germany's inflation data and were awaiting a pivotal U.S. employment report to reinforce their predictions regarding a potential peak in global interest rates. On the data front, Germany's consumer price inflation (CPI) dropped to its lowest level in 29 months in November, aligning with the initial estimates published last week. The CPI declined to an annual rate of 3.2 percent last month, down from 3.8 percent in October. This decrease further supports the argument for a potential peak in eurozone interest rates.The upcoming week will see the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England announce their stance on monetary policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0806(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0822( (38.%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0764(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound declined against dollar on Friday as investors focus turned to monthly U.S. employment report later on Friday. U.S. November nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show job growth in the world's biggest economy likely picked up in the previous month. Trading this week has been dominated by rate expectations, with those concerning the outlook for interest in Japan providing the strongest catalyst. The Bank of England is among the major central banks that meet next week to discuss monetary policy. Traders do not expect the Bank to make any changes to interest rates, leaving the focus on what policymakers think about the outlook for growth and inflation and what that might suggest about the timing of the first cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2592(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2648 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2546 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2488(Nov 23rd low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar was subdued against Swiss franc on Friday as investors markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday for clues on Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. U.S. non-farm payrolls figures due later on Friday are expected to show employers added 180,000 jobs last month. An upside surprise could drive traders to scale back predictions for more than 125 basis points of Fed rate cuts next year. Traders were pricing a 62% chance of a rate cut by March next year, CME's FedWatch Tool showed, but a poll saw rates unchanged until at least July. Lower interest rates tend to support non-interest-bearing bullion. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were near three-month lows, while the U.S. dollar dipped 0.6% .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8763 (11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8801(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8744(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8644(23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar initially dipped against the yen on Friday but recovered some ground ahead of the jobs data. The broad strength in the yen kept a lid on the dollar, which was also on the defensive ahead of the closely-watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later on Friday.Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday the central bank had several options on which interest rates to target once it pulls short-term borrowing costs out of negative territory. Traders now look forward to U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November due at 1330 GMT, which expected to show that employers added 180,000 jobs last month. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.36(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.21(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.35(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.49 (Daily low).
Equities Recap
European shares saw an uptick, primarily driven by gains in luxury and energy stocks ,while nvestors assessed Germany's inflation data and eagerly anticipated a crucial U.S. employment report.
(At GMT 12:18)UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.17percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.16 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.71 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were on track for their first weekly fall in four after the dollar firmed, although they traded steadily on Friday ahead of a key U.S. jobs data to gauge the potential of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as March.
Bullion scaled an all-time peak of $2,135.40 on Monday on elevated bets for a rate cut by the U.S. Fed, before dropping more than $100 on uncertainty over the cut's timing.
Oil benchmarks were on track for a seventh consecutive weekly decline due to concerns about a global surplus in supply and decreased demand from China. However, prices showed some recovery on Friday following calls from Saudi Arabia and Russia urging additional OPEC+ members to participate in output cuts.
Brent crude futures were up $1.93, or 2.6%, at $75.98 a barrel at 0913 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.82, or 2.6%, to $71.16 a barrel. Brent had earlier risen by $2.