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America’s Roundup: Dollar rises from 3-1/2-month low, rate cut bets intact, Wall Street ends mixed, Gold steadies, Oil prices gain near 2% on expectations of deeper OPEC+ cuts-November 30th,2023

Posted at 30 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups


Market Roundup

•Canada Current Account (Q3) -3.2B, 1.0B forecast,-6.6B previous

•US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 5.2%, 4.9% forecast,2.1% previous

•US Real Consumer Spending (Q3)4.0% forecast,0.8% previous

• US GDP Sales (Q3) 3.6% ,3.5%forecast,2.1% previous

•US PCE Prices (Q3) 2.8%, 2.9% forecast,2.5% previous

•US Core PCE Prices (Q3) 2.30%,2.40% forecast,3.70% previous

•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)              3.5%,3.5% forecast,1.7% previous

•US Oct Retail Inventories Ex Auto -0.9%,0.4% previous

•US Oct Goods Trade Balance  -89.84B   ,-86.70B forecast,-86.84B previous

•US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3) 4.1%,0.5% previous

•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.2%,0.1% forecast,0.2% previous

•US Crude Oil Inventories 1.609M, -0.933M forecast,8.701M previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•01:30 Chinese Nov   Composite PMI  50.7 previous

•01:30 Chinese Nov   Non-Manufacturing PMI  51.1 forecast,50.6 previous

•01:30 Chinese Nov   Manufacturing PMI  49.6 forecast, 49.5 previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)

•01:30 Japan BoJ Board Member Nakamura Speaks

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro eased on Wednesday after Inflation data from Spain and the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia showed that price pressures in the euro zone continued to ease in November. Consumer prices in the German state of NRW fell by 0.3 % month-on-month in November and were up by 3.0 % year-on-year, the state's statistics office said on Wednesday. The euro zone-wide inflation figure is due out on Thursday, before the Fed's preferred measure of U.S. inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE. The euro briefly crossed $1.10 for the first time since August on Tuesday but pared gains and was little changed at $1.0991. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1014(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1064( Aug 11th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0966 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0936 (38.2%fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling eased against a stronger dollar on Wednesday, but showed little reaction to UK consumer credit data or comments from Bank of England (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey who said now was not the time to discuss cutting interest rates. Bailey said on Wednesday the central bank  will do what it takes to get inflation down to its 2% target, adding that he had not yet seen enough progress towards that goal to be confident. Meanwhile, data showed British consumers increased the pace of their borrowing by the most in five years in the 12 months to October, underscoring the impact of the higher cost of living on households. Market attention has shifted in recent weeks to when the BoE will start cutting rates from a 15-year high, as inflation has started to cool and the economy is showing signs of slowing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2736(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2763(Aug 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2663 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2628(38.2%fib).

 USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, pulling back from an earlier two-month high, as domestic data showed the current account remaining in deficit in the third quarter. Canada's current account deficit narrowed to C$3.22 billion ($2.37 billion) in the third quarter from an upwardly revised C$7.32 billion deficit in the second quarter, Statistics Canada said.The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 1.9% higher at $77.86 a barrel, while Canadian government bond yields fell across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries. The loonie   was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3590 to the greenback, or 73.58 U.S. cents, after earlier touching its strongest level since Sept. 29 at 1.3542 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3623(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3540(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3461(61.8%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Wednesday on growing expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the first half of 2024. Markets are waiting to see whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell will let stand comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday flagging a possible rate cut in the months ahead.Powell is scheduled on Friday to participate in a fireside chat at Spelman College in Atlanta. Investors will monitor the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on Thursday, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, for further insights into the rate outlook. Japan's yen, rose slightly on the day, with the dollar last down 0.09% at 147.30 after falling to a more-than-two-month low of 146.68 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.97(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.68(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.75 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.17(50%fib).

Equities Recap

German shares rallied on Wednesday after better-than-expected inflation data in the euro zone's largest economy boosted hopes that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates next year, while Italian stocks neared their highest since 2008.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.09 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0. 24 percent.

U.S. stocks edged lower on Wednesday as a robust upward GDP revision eased recession fears, while Federal Reserve officials' remarks raised questions about the duration of the central bank's restrictive policy.

Dow Jones closed up by 0.04 percent, S&P 500 ended down  by 0.09 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.16 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold firmed near its highest in about seven months on Wednesday as expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by the first half of next year boosted the outlook for the zero-yield precious metal.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,043.94 per ounce by 3:44 p.m. ET (2044 GMT), after hitting its highest since May 5.U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $2,067.1.

Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Wednesday as investors focused their attention on expectations of fresh supply cuts from OPEC+ and looked past a jump in U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

Brent crude futures advanced by $1.42, or 1.7%, to settle at $83.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.45, or 1.9%, to settle at $77.86 a barrel.


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