Posted at 29 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Nov CPI (YoY) 3.0%, 3.1% forecast, 4.2% previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3) 0.1%, -0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•German Nov North Rhine Westphalia CPI (MoM) -0.3%, 0.0% forecast,0.2% previous
•German Import Price Index (MoM) 0.3%,-0.1% forecast, 1.6% previous
• German Oct Import Price Index (YoY) -13.0%, -13.4% forecast,-14.3% previous
• Spanish Nov CPI (YoY) 3.2%,3.7% forecast, 3.5% previous
• Spanish Nov HICP (YoY) 3.2%, 3.7% forecast,3.5% previous
• German Nov CPI (YoY) 3.4%, 4.4% forecast,5.1% previous
• German Nov CPI (MoM) -0.4%, 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
• German Nov CPI (YoY) 2.9%,3.6% forecast, 4.7% previous
• German Nov CPI (MoM) -0.4% ,-0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
• German Nov CPI (MoM) -0.3%, 0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
• German Nov CPI (MoM) -0.3% ,0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
•EU Nov Consumer Inflation Expectation 9.3,11.4 previous
•EU Nov Industrial Sentiment -9.5,-8.9 forecast, -9.3 previous
•EU Nov Services Sentiment 4.9,4.3 forecast,4.5 previous
•EU Nov Business and Consumer Survey 93.8,93.7 forecast,93.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Current Account (Q3) 1.0B forecast,-6.6B previous
•13:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 4.9% forecast,2.1% previous
•13:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q3)4.0% forecast,0.8% previous
•13:30 US GDP Sales (Q3)3.5% forecast,2.1% previous
•13:30 US PCE Prices (Q3)2.9% forecast,2.5% previous
•13:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q3) 2.40% forecast,3.70% previous
•13:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 3.5% forecast,1.7% previous
•13:30 US Oct Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.4% previous
•13:30 US Oct Goods Trade Balance -86.70B forecast,-86.84B previous
•13:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3)0.5% previous
•13:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM)0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.933M forecast,8.701M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•15:05 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•18:45 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Wednesday after Inflation data from Spain and the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia showed that price pressures in the euro zone continued to ease in November. Consumer prices in the German state of NRW fell by 0.3 % month-on-month in November and were up by 3.0 % year-on-year, the state's statistics office said on Wednesday. The euro zone-wide inflation figure is due out on Thursday, before the Fed's preferred measure of U.S. inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE. The euro briefly crossed $1.10 for the first time since August on Tuesday but pared gains and was little changed at $1.0991. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0964(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000( Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0932 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0890 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased against a stronger dollar on Wednesday, but showed little reaction to UK consumer credit data or comments from Bank of England (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey who said now was not the time to discuss cutting interest rates. Bailey said on Wednesday the central bank "will do what it takes" to get inflation down to its 2% target, adding that he had not yet seen enough progress towards that goal to be confident. Meanwhile, data showed British consumers increased the pace of their borrowing by the most in five years in the 12 months to October, underscoring the impact of the higher cost of living on households. Market attention has shifted in recent weeks to when the BoE will start cutting rates from a 15-year high, as inflation has started to cool and the economy is showing signs of slowing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2699(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2747(31st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2590 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2536(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Wednesday despite hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve would likely cut interest rates by the first half of next year kept bullion near a seven-month peak. Expectations of U.S. policy easing that have been driving the greenback lower got a boost after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, considered a hawk, said rate cuts could begin if inflation continues on a downward trend for several more months. Investors are now looking ahead to the revised U.S. third-quarter GDP figures due at 1330 GMT and key PCE data the Fed's preferred inflation gauge on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8859(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8896(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8760(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Wednesday as market attention shifted to US GDP data. Attention will also be on key U.S. releases including personal consumption data and initial jobless claims on Thursday. The dollar index edged 0.1% higher against its rivals. However, the U.S. dollar was poised to mark its worst monthly performance in a year, increasing appeal among other currency holders. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller - an influential and previously hawkish voice at the U.S. central bank told the American Enterprise Institute on Tuesday that rate cuts could begin in a matter of months, provided inflation keeps easing.Waller's remark echoed earlier comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.86(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.11(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.66 (Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 146.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
German shares led gains in Europe on Wednesday after data pointed to easing inflation in the most populous state in the country, boosting expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates next year.
At (GMT 12:46 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.11 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.56 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday due to a slight uptick in the dollar, although hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve would likely cut interest rates by the first half of next year kept bullion near a seven-month peak.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,036.50 per ounce by 0942 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 5. U.S. gold futures for December delivery lost 0.1% to $2,037.30 per ounce.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday as investors turned their attention to an OPEC+ meeting to decide on output policy, while supply disruption caused by a storm in the Black Sea and lower U.S. inventories drove buying.
Brent crude futures climbed 86 cents, or 1.1%, to $82.54 a barrel at 1031 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 93 cents, or 1.2%, at $77.34 a barrel.