Posted at 29 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Redbook (YoY) 6.3% ,3.4% previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 0.2% ,0.4% previous
•US Sep S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 3.9%, 4.0% forecast,2.2% previous
•US Sep S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 0.7%, 1.0% previous
•US Sep House Price Index (YoY) 6.1% ,5.6% previous
•US Sep House Price Index 414.8 ,411.8 previous
•US Sep House Price Index (MoM) 0.6%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Nov Richmond Services Index 1 , -11 previous
•US Nov Richmond Manufacturing Index -5, 1 forecast,3 previous
•US Nov CB Consumer Confidence 102.0 , 101.0 forecast,102.6 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 5.50% forecast, 5.50% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•01:00 New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
•02:00 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as dollar dipped on expectation that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates again. Traders will have to weigh up data this week on how the U.S. economy fared in the third quarter, along with a key read of consumer inflation and spending - both of which could be instrumental in setting expectations for the timing of the first rate cut. The spotlight this week will be on Thursday's U.S. October personal consumption expenditures report (PCE), which includes core PCE, said to be the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and euro zone consumer inflation figures for further clarity on where prices and monetary policy are headed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1023(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1046( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0966 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0924 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Britain's pound was holding near its highest level in almost three months on Tuesday and remains on track for its biggest monthly rise in a year against the dollar as resilient data and a higher-for-longer rates message supported the currency.Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden on Tuesday told a conference in Hong Kong that monetary policy would need to remain restrictive for some time to defeat inflation, pouring cold water on the idea that interest rate cuts are imminent. .The currency has risen almost 4% in November, its biggest monthly rise since a more than 5% gain in November last year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2713 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2747(31st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2590 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2536(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to an eight-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as investors grew more optimistic that central banks will succeed in lowering inflation without tanking the global economy. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 2.1% higher at $76.41 a barrel, while Canadian government bond yields moved lower across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries.The loonie was trading 0.4% higher at 1.3565 to the greenback, or 73.72 U.S. cents, after touching its strongest since Oct. 2 at 1.3561 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3611 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3667 (61.8% fib A).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3557(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3484(23.6% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Tuesday as expectations of an end to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle kept the dollar under pressure. Investors are also eyeing the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on Thursday, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, for further cues on interest rate outlook.Also on the radar is the revised U.S. third-quarter GDP figures, due on Wednesday. Traders widely expect the U.S. central bank to hold rates in December, and are pricing in about a 50-50 chance of cuts in May next year, CME's FedWatch Tool shows.Strong resistance can be seen at 147.72(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.38(505fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.97 (23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.63(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares fell for a second session on Tuesday, stalling November's strong run of gains, after comments by European Central Bank policymakers dampened expectations of interest rate cuts next year.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.16 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0. 21 percent.
U.S. stocks ended with modest gains on Tuesday as investors parsed conflicting remarks from Federal Reserve officials, with upbeat consumer data providing some lift.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.24 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.10 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.29 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday and hit a more than six-month high, driven by a retreating dollar and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve has finished hiking interest rates.
Spot gold gained 1.4% at $2,041.55 per ounce by 3:00 p.m. ET (2000 GMT), highest since May 10.U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 1.4% higher at $2,040.
Oil prices jumped on Tuesday, settling up about 2% on the possibility OPEC+ will extend or deepen supply cuts, a storm-related drop in Kazakh oil output and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Brent crude futures settled up $1.70, or 2.1%, at $81.68 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.55, or 2.1%, to settle at $76.41.