Posted at 28 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German GfK Dec n Consumer Climate 27.8,-27.9 forecast, -28.1previous
• French Nov Consumer Confidence 87, 84 forecast, 84 previous
•EU Oct M3 Money Supply (YoY) -1.0% ,-0.9% forecast,-1.2% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) 0.6%, 0.7% forecast, 0.8% previous
•EU Oct Loans to Non Financial Corporations -0.3%, 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 3.4% previous
•14:00 Sep US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 0.4% previous
•14:00 US Sep S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 4.0% forecast,2.2% previous
•14:00 US Sep S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 1.0% previous
•14:00 US Sep House Price Index (YoY) 5.6% previous
•14:00 US Sep House Price Index 411.8 previous
•14:00 US Sep House Price Index (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•15:00 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•15:00 US Nov Richmond Manufacturing Shipments 9 previous
•15:00 US Nov Richmond Services Index -11 previous
•15:00 US Nov Richmond Manufacturing Index 1 forecast,3 previous
•15:00 US Nov CB Consumer Confidence 101.0 forecast,102.6 previous
•15:30 US Nov Texas Services Sector Outlook -18.2 previous
•15:30 US Nov Dallas Fed Services Revenues 0.7 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•15:05 US Fed Waller Speaks
• 15:45 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
• 16:00 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Significant Events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as dollar dipped on expectation that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates again. Traders will have to weigh up data this week on how the U.S. economy fared in the third quarter, along with a key read of consumer inflation and spending - both of which could be instrumental in setting expectations for the timing of the first rate cut. The spotlight this week will be on Thursday's U.S. October personal consumption expenditures report (PCE), which includes core PCE, said to be the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and euro zone consumer inflation figures for further clarity on where prices and monetary policy are headed. The euro was steady against dollar at $1.0954. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0964(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000( Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0932 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0890 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Britain's pound was holding near its highest level in almost three months on Tuesday and remains on track for its biggest monthly rise in a year against the dollar as resilient data and a higher-for-longer rates message supported the currency.Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden on Tuesday told a conference in Hong Kong that monetary policy would need to remain restrictive for some time to defeat inflation, pouring cold water on the idea that interest rate cuts are imminent. By 1147 GMT, the pound was little changed against the dollar at $1.2627, just below the near three-month high of $1.2644 reached on Monday.The currency has risen almost 4% in November, its biggest monthly rise since a more than 5% gain in November last year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2644(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2747(31st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2590 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2536(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Tuesday as traders continued to unwind long dollar positions before this week's U.S. and euro zone inflation data. Traders are now eyeing U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation this week for more confirmation that inflation in the world's largest economy is slowing.The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, was last at 103.17, a whisker above the 103.07 it touched in Asia trade, the lowest since Aug. 31.The index is on track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8859(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8896(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8780(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Tuesday as expectations of an end to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle kept the dollar under pressure. Investors are also eyeing the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on Thursday, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, for further cues on interest rate outlook.Also on the radar is the revised U.S. third-quarter GDP figures, due on Wednesday. Traders widely expect the U.S. central bank to hold rates in December, and are pricing in about a 50-50 chance of cuts in May next year, CME's FedWatch Tool shows. The Japanese yen was a touch firmer at 148.45 per dollar , continuing its recovery from the brink of 152 per dollar .Strong resistance can be seen at 148.75(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.11(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.91 (23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 147.17(21st Nov low).
Equities Recap
European shares fell for a second session on Tuesday, stalling November's strong run of gains, after European Central Bank policymakers' latest comments dampened expectations of interest rate cuts next year.
At (GMT 12:46 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.36 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.15 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.56 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold held its ground on Tuesday after touching a six-month peak, buoyed by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve has concluded its interest rate hikes, ahead of the release of key economic data.
Spot gold edged up around 0.1% to $2,015.29 per ounce by 1023 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 16 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.2% to $2,015.50 per ounce.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday as the possibility that OPEC+ will extend or deepen supply cuts was compounded by a storm-related drop in Kazakh oil output to send the Brent benchmark above $80 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were up 79 cents, or 1%, at $80.77 a barrel by 1131 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 76 cents, or 1%, to $75.62.