Posted at 24 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German GDP (YoY) (Q3)-0.4%, -0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
•German GDP German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•Swiss Employment Level (Q3) 5.465M ,5.432M previous
•German Nov Current Assessment 89.4 ,89.5 forecast,89.2 previous
•German Nov Ifo Business Climate Index 87.3, 87.5 forecast,86.9 previous
•German Nov German Business Expectations 85.2,85.7 forecast,84.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Sep Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•13:30 Canada Sep Retail Sales (MoM) 0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.4% previous
•14:00 Belgium Nov NBB Business Climate -15.0 forecast,-16.8 previous
•14:45 US Nov Manufacturing PMI 49.8 forecast,50.0 previous
•14:45 US Nov Services PMI 50.4 forecast,50.6 previous
•14:45 US Nov S&P Global Composite PMI 50 .7 previous
•16:00 Canada Sep Budget Balance (YoY) -4.29B previous
•16:00 Canada Sep Budget Balance -3.05B previous
•21:30 US Fed's Balance Sheet 7,815B previous
•21:30 US Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks 3.483T previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday after data confirmed an initial estimate published in late October that showed Germany's economy shrank slightly in the third quarter compared with the previous three months.In the second quarter, Germany's economy had grown by 0.1% after stagnating in the first three months of the year. Adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.4% year-on-year in the third quarter. Private consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP, was 0.3% lower than in the previous quarter, the statistics office said. Government consumer spending increased for the first time in more than a year by 0.2%, it added. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0940(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000( Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0895 (9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0859 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday nearing its highest in almost three months, lifted in part by a broad-based retreat in the dollar, but also by a rise in UK bond yields after this week's budget update included a forecast of higher government debt issuance. Also bullish for sterling was a reading of consumer confidence on Friday that showed people in Britain turned more optimistic about the outlook for the economy and their personal finances this month, although sentiment is a long off where it was before COVID struck in early 2019.By Friday, the pound traded around $1.257, up 0.28%. Against the euro , sterling was up 0.2% at 86.84 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2588(23.65fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2644 (Sep 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2136 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2502(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar eased against Swiss franc on Friday as investors' tempered some of their earlier enthusiasm about the prospect of an end to U.S. rate hikes. The Fed minutes showed policymakers pledged to "proceed carefully" from here, which traders did not interpret as new information, and also contained no confirmation that policymakers had ruled out more rate hikes. The dollar index was up 0.25% on the day, rising for a second consecutive session, but is still on track for its worst monthly performance in a year, with a drop of 2.7%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8859(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8896(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8815(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8800(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Friday after Japan's core consumer price growth picked up slightly in October, after easing the previous month, reinforcing investors' views that stubborn inflation may push the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to roll back monetary stimulus before long.The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.9% year-on-year in October, government data showed on Friday, against 3.0% expected by economists in a Reuters poll.Core inflation had slowed to 2.8% in September from 3.1% in August, the first time it was below 3% since August 2022. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.63 (38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.02(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.78 (50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 147.73(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark stock index slipped on Friday, led by declines in miners and technology stocks, with investors assessing economic data and the start of a four-day truce between Israel and Hamas.
At (GMT 12:26 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.27 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.12 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.19 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold held its ground on Friday, on track to log its second consecutive weekly rise as analysts stepped up bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve was done with interest rate hikes, sending the dollar lower.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,994.60 per ounce as of 1138 GMT, and has risen 0.8% so far this week. U.S. gold futures were up 0.2% at $1,996.20.
Oil prices dipped about 1% on Thursday, extending losses on expectations that OPEC+ might not deepen output cuts next year after the producer group postponed its policy meeting.
Brent crude futures were down 68 cents, or about 0.8%, at $81.28 a barrel by 2024 GMT after falling as much as 4% on Wednesday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 75 cents, or 1%, to $76.35 after dropping as much as 5% in the previous session.