Posted at 06 March 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.825%, 2.690% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.022%, 2.928% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.358%, 3.240% previous
•US Jan Factory Orders (MoM) -1.6%,-1.8% forecast,1.8% previous
•Canada Feb Ivey PMI 51.6, 55.9 forecast,60.1 previous
•Canada Feb Ivey PMI n.s.a 50.8, 54.7 previous
•US Jan Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -5.1%, -5.1% previous
•US Jan Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.8%,0.7% previous
•US Jan Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 1.2%,-1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•00:30 Australia Jan Imports (MoM) 1.0% previous
•00:30 Australia Jan Exports (MoM) -1.0% previous
•00:30 Australia Jan Trade Balance12.500B forecast,12.237B previous
•00:30 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)1.9% forecast,-4.0% previous
•03:00 China Feb Exports (YoY) -9.4% forecast,-9.9% previous
•03:00 China Feb Imports (YoY) -5.5% forecast,-7.5% previous
•03:00 China Feb Trade Balance (USD) 81.80B forecast,78.00B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•03:00 Australia Mar RBA Interest Rate Decision 3.60% forecast,3.35% previous
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the dollar on Monday as rate hike expectation by ECB boosted euro . Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated more rate hikes from the ECB in coming months even amid signs of easing price pressures, while a report showed Austrian central bank Chief Robert Holzmann sees the need for 50-basis-point hikes at the central bank's next four meetings.On the data front, Euro zone retail sales rose 0.3% month-on-month in January for a 2.3% year-on-year decline, underlining the weakness of consumer demand and the broader economic slowdown. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0660 (21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0741 (Feb 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0590 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0554(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell against the dollar on Monday, with traders focused on global risk sentiment for direction on the currency ahead of a quiet week in Britain. On the data front, a survey on Monday showed British construction activity growing at its fastest pace in nine months in February after two months of declines, as a rebound in commercial work and civil engineering helped offset a continued fall in house-building. The pound was 0.27% lower against the dollar at $1.2021. The spotlight this week will be on Friday's U.S. payrolls report.Fed Chair Jerome Powell's two-day testimony before Congress, starting Tuesday, will also be in focus. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2043(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2157(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1976(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1932(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday on the eve of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony which investors will watch for clues on future U.S. rate hikes. Investors will watch for clues on monetary policy plans. In February, concern that U.S. interest rates would stay higher for longer hurt risk sentiment. Recent commentary from other Fed officials has calmed jitters, with markets now pricing in three 25-basis-point rate hikes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4014 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4170 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4000 (Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3835 (21 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against yen on Monday as traders tried to gauge the path for Federal Reserve policy. Powell will be testifying before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday and investors will watch for clues on the policy outlook, after recent strong economic data and hot inflation numbers fueled bets for more interest rate hikes this year. Traders expect at least three 25-basis-point hikes this year and see interest rates peaking at 5.44% by September from 4.67% now. Strong resistance can be seen at 136.13(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 137.20(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 135.28 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 134.10 (24th Feb low).
Equities Recap
European shares bid farewell to their initial momentum on Monday after European Central Bank officials backed the need for more interest rate hikes, while investors assessed the lower-than-expected rebound in Euro zone January retail sales.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up down by 0.22 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.48 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.34percent.
The S&P 500 made little progress on Monday, closing slightly higher than its session low as U.S. Treasury yields pulled higher with investors braced for this week's testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the February jobs report.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.12% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.07% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.11% percent.
Treasuries Recap
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slipped on Monday, adding to a decline from the prior session, after economic data on manufacturing and ahead of policy testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 0.7 basis points to 3.956%.The 10-year yield reached a four-month high of 4.091% last week, while the two-year yield reached 4.944%, its highest level in over 15 years before pulling back on Friday.
Commodities Recap
Gold eased from an earlier near three-week high on Monday as investors prepared for Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this week and monthly U.S. jobs data, both of which could influence interest rate policy.
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,846.54 per ounce by 2:56 p.m. ET (1956 GMT), after hitting its highest since Feb. 15 at $1,858.19. U.S. gold futures settled unchanged at $1,854.60.
Oil prices edged slightly higher on Monday, bouncing back from early losses, as top oil executives at an energy conference in Houston discussed supply tightness and hopes for rising Chinese demand.
Brent crude futures were trading up 35 cents, or 0.4% at $86.18 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 78 cents, or 1%, at $80.46.