Posted at 28 January 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
•PCE: inflation cools along with consumer spending
•US indexes up: Dow 0.08%, S&P 0.25%, Nasdaq 0.95%
•US Dec Personal Income (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Dec PCE price index (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% previous
•US Dec Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.4%, 4.4% forecast, 4.7% previous
•US Dec Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•US Dec PCE Price index (YoY) 5.0%, 5.5% previous
•US Dec Real Personal Consumption (MoM) -0.3%,0.5% previous
•US Dec Personal Spending (MoM) -0.2%,-0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•US Jan Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.9%, 4.4% forecast,4.0% previous
•US Dec Pending Home Sales Index 76.9, 73.9 previous
•US Jan Michigan Consumer Sentiment 64.9,64.6 forecast, 64.6 previous
•US Jan Michigan Consumer Expectations 62.7, 62.0 forecast,62.0 previous
•US Jan Michigan Current Conditions 68.4, 68.6 forecast,68.6 previous
•US Jan Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.90%, 3.00% forecast, 3.00% previous
•US Dec Pending Home Sales (MoM) 2.5%,-0.9% forecast,-4.0% previous
•US Dec Dallas Fed PCE 2.30%, 3.40% previous
•Canada Nov Budget Balance -3.38B, -1.90B previous
•Canada Nov Budget Balance (YoY) -3.55B, -0.17B previous
•US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 609,613 previous
•US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 771, 771 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the dollar on Friday after data showed falling U.S. consumer spending and cooling inflation but traded in tight range investors awaited a slew of central bank meetings next week . Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, dropped 0.2% last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Data for November was revised lower to show spending slipping 0.1% instead of gaining 0.1% as previously reported. The upcoming week is marked by prominent central bank meetings including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England. The euro was 0.17% lower at $1.08725, but not far from the nine-month high of $1.09295 touched on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0942(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000 (psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0844(9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0784(18th Jan low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Friday but was not far from its highest level in over seven months against the dollar.Investors expect the British economy's slowdown to end the Bank of England (BoE) tightening cycle soon, in a move which might weaken the pound in the short-term. British private-sector economic activity fell at its fastest rate in two years in January, a survey showed on Tuesday. Some analysts flagged substantial short-sterling positioning on expectations for a turn in the BoE cycle Sterling slipped 0.12% to $1.2397. It hit its highest since June 10 at $1.2447 on Jan. 23.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2421(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2521(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2366(9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2284 (Jan 24th low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to its highest level in more than two months against its American counterpart on Friday as investors cheered U.S. data showing that inflation pressures have eased. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3305 to the greenback, after touching its strongest since Nov. 18 at 1.3298.For the week, the currency was up 0.6%. That was its sixth straight week of gains, its longest weekly winning streak since May 2021. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3351(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3378 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3286 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3253 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Friday as hot Tokyo inflation readings spurred bets that a hawkish pivot from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could be in the offing. Data showed consumer price inflation in Japan's capital accelerated to a nearly 42-year peak this month, piling pressure on the BOJ to step away from stimulus. Attention now turns to a slew of central bank policy decisions, with the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England (BoE) all due to make rate decisions next week as they judge what policy adjustments may be required in their battle with rampant inflation against a tough global economic backdrop. Strong resistance can be seen at 130.55(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 131.68 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 129.31 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 128.30 (Jan 20th low).
European shares ended higher on Friday as investors assessed mixed earnings from the region, while easing inflation in the United States bolstered sentiment ahead of a week of major central bank decisions.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.02 percent.
Wall Street advanced on Friday, marking the end of an rocky week in which economic data and corporate earnings guidance hinted at softening demand but also economic resiliency ahead of next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.08% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.25% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.95% percent.
U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Friday after inflation data in Japan surprised on the upside and following the release of the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which was in line with expectations.
Benchmark 10-year yields were up about three basis points at 3.518%. They went as high as 3.565% in intraday trading, their highest in over a week. Two-year yields rose to 4.207%.
Gold steadied on Friday with gains capped by a stronger dollar, but the metal was still set for a sixth straight weekly rise ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision next week.
Spot gold edged up 0.1% to $1,931.61 per ounce by 2:27 p.m. ET (1927 GMT), U.S. gold futures remained unchanged at $1,930.20, with gold looking to rise 0.2% for the week.
Oil prices settled lower on Friday, making their weekly finish flat to lower, as indications of strong Russian oil supply offset better-than-expected U.S. economic growth data, strong middle distillate refining margins and hopes of a rapid recovery in Chinese demand.
Brent futures settled down 81 cents, or 0.9%, at $86.66 per barrel, up just 3 cents from last week's settlement. U.S. crude fell $1.33, or 1.6 %, to settle at $79.68, 2% lower on the week.
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