Posted at 18 August 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
•EU Jul CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) 0.1%, 0.8% previous
•EU Jul CPI (MoM) 0.1% ,0.1%forecast, 0.8% previous
•EU Jun Construction Output (MoM) 0.36% previous
•EU Jul CPI (YoY) 8.9%, 8.9% forecast, 8.6% previous
•EU Jul HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 5.1% ,5.0% forecast, 4.6% previous
•EU Jul Core CPI (YoY) 4.0% ,4.0% forecast, 3.7% previous
•EU Jul Core CPI (MoM) -0.2% , -0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead – Economic data (GMT)
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 265K forecast, 262K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,438K forecast, 1,428K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 252.00K previous
•12:30 Canada Jul IPPI (MoM) -1.1% previous
•12:30 US Aug Philly Fed CAPEX Index 4.40 previous
• 12:30 US Aug Philly Fed Prices Paid 52.20 previous
• 12:30 US Aug Philly Fed New Orders -24.8 previous
• 12:30 US Aug Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -5.0 forecast, -12.3 previous
• 12:30 Canada Jul RMPI (MoM) -0.1% previous
• 12:30 US Aug Philly Fed Employment 19.4 previous
•14:00 US Jul Existing Home Sales 4.89M forecast, 5.12M previous
•14:00 US Jul Existing Home Sales (MoM) -5.4% previous
•14:00 US Jul Leading Index (MoM) -0.5% forecast, -0.8% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 34B forecast, 44B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 2.150% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 2.430% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•17:15 EU ECB's Schnabel Speaks
•17:20 US FOMC Member George Speaks
•17:45 US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed on Thursday after European Central Bank official warned the inflation outlook had not improved. The euro zone inflation outlook has failed to improve since a July rate hike, European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel said, suggesting she favours another large interest rate increase next month even as recession risks harden. The central bank for the 19-country bloc surprised investors with a 50-basis-point rate hike last month fearing that inflation, now approaching double digit territory, was at risk of getting entrenched .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0182(30DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0215(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0161(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0094(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound struggled for direction against the dollar on Thursday after policy minutes from the Federal Reserve boosted the U.S. currency and traders worried soaring UK inflation would mean higher interest rates and a weaker British economy.The latest inflation figures, which were released on Wednesday and came in above 10%, increase pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to bring down prices and also ramp up fears of a sharp economic slowdown. The pound was down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.204 and earlier fell to $1.1995. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2078(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2109(21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2000(50%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.1922 (61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar rose higher against the Swiss franc on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting pointed to U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer to bring down inflation. Fed officials saw "little evidence" late last month that U.S. inflation pressures were easing, minutes released on Wednesday showed. The minutes flagged an eventual slowdown in the pace of hikes, but not a switch to cuts in 2023 that traders until recently had priced in to interest-rate futures. Traders see about a 40% chance of a third consecutive 75 basis point Fed rate hike in September, and expect rates to hit a peak around 3.7% by March, and to hover around there until later in 2023. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9542(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9593(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9500 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9445(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Thursday as greenback was on the front foot on after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting pointed to U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer to bring down inflation. The Federal Reserve’s minutes for its July meeting showed it was contemplating paring back the pace of future rate hikes in line with a slowdown in inflation but saw “little evidence” yet that pressures were easing.Investors interpreted the minutes as a sign the U.S. tightening cycle could be less aggressive than forecast but showed Fed policymakers committed to raising rates till prices come under control. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is up about 0.8% this week putting the brakes on a pullback that began about a month ago. Strong resistance can be seen at 135.47(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 135.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.39(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 134.19 (11DMA).
European shares inched higher on Thursday on a boost from oil stocks, with gains capped by growth fears as inflation reached a record high in July and European Central Bank officials hinted at another large rate hike next month.
At (GMT 10:47),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.04% percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.70% percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.44% percent
Gold prices were near a two-week low on Thursday as the dollar gained after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting suggested the central bank would keep raising rates to tame inflation.
Spot gold was flat at $1,761.69 per ounce, as of 0645 GMT, after falling to its lowest since Aug. 3 at $1,759.17 on Wednesday.
U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% higher to $1,775.50 per ounce.
Oil prices eased on Thursday, reversing course from the previous session, as rising output from Russia and worries about a potential global recession weighed on futures.
Brent crude futures fell 33 cents, or 0.4%, to $93.32 a barrel. U.S. crude futures fell 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $87.71 a barrel.